TECHNOLOGIES GOING TO RULE IN 2011

At the end of the year, it’s always natural to look back at our accomplishments and also look forward to what might be. When it comes to technology, predicting the future is a bit risky because innovations expected to breakthrough often end up falling apart. So we’re not going to make any predictions about the next great app will be or what the latest gadget is that's coming your way. Instead, we’ve decided to look at what's on the cusp, and will be coming into its own in 2011. Most likely it’s technology you’ve already heard about, but until now, it’s only just made a smattering of appearances around the country. But in 2011, these are the five techs we think are likely to go viral.

ELECTRIC CARS


The first all-electric Nissan Leaf was delivered to a Northern California tech executive in December, while buyers in Southern California, Tennessee, Seattle, Oregon and Arizona will get their hands on the much-anticipated vehicle over the next few weeks.  

Meanwhile, the first Chevy Volts are being delivered and both Nissan and GM hope the new generation of EVs will compete with Toyota’s super-popular Prius hybrid gas-electric engine for green drivers.

Ford’s Focus EV should be out by the end of 2011 as well as Toyota’s plug-in hybrid. For high-rollers, U.S. automaker Tesla is already selling its $110,000 EV Roadster, and expects to have a hatchback with a 300-mile range available this year also at about half the price.

But one expert says stiff price tags --$33,500 for the Leaf and $41,000 for the Volt -- will temper immediate consumer demand.

“I think there is a disconnect between what consumers expect to pay as a premium for an electric vehicle versus the cost today,” said John Gartner, senior analyst at Pike Research, a Boulder-based environmental consulting firm. “It has to become more in line with combustion engines.”

The good news is that EV buyers can still take advantage of a $7,500 federal tax credit, while $400 million in federal stimulus dollars are helping subsidize construction of electric charging stations throughout the United States.

MOBILE MONEY

Forget about checking your account balances or transferring funds on your iPhone, 2011 promises a whole new wave of technology to turn your smartphone into a wallet.

Sandwich chain Subway has rolled out on new app called FaceCash that allows customers to use their Blackberry, iPhone or Android to pay for their meal. Users first create an account by transferring funds from their bank, and then use their FaceCash account to debit their balance at participating stores.

Starbucks now lets coffee-drinkers to pay with their gift card in conjunction with their mobile phone by using a barcode scanner, and the ubiquitous coffee giant says more applications are on the way.

A group of European technology firms is devising an open source standard so that travelers will be able to use their cellphone to board almost any transit system in the world. The near field communications (NFC) chips send financial transaction data short distances to readers at fare gates, check-out stands and elsewhere. Not to be outdone, Google is set to debut its shopper-friendly Nexus S mobile phone embedded with the same NFC chip.

Scott Moriarty, a Richmond, Va.-based technology consultant, says the two big issues remain: who controls vendor technology and who runs the third-party payment system.

“These small pilots show the functionality (of mobile-based payments) Then the enhancers come in. what has to happen is financial institutions or do I move money to a PayPal-type account.”

ENERGY STORAGE

Renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind and biomass have been sputtering because of financial and transmission obstacles. But finding a say to store the energy could cause a big shift.

“Energy storage is the thing that is going to turn renewable power from a difficult to manage resource into a resource that is indistinguishable from what we have today," said Carl Zichella of the Natural Resources Defense Council.

Companies are taking advantage of federal stimulus funds to get dormant projects off the ground. Utilities in New York and Pennsylvania are installing rows of giant flywheels (photo), for example, to capture slight fluctuations in power generation from existing fossil fuel plants. The flywheels then release then energy when most needed.

“It generates energy magnetically, and you either withdraw it or slow it down and it reduces fossil fuel generation,” said Imre Gyuk, project manager for energy storage at the Department of Energy.

The Sacramento Municipal Utilities District is running a pilot project that combines solar panels, electric vehicles and smart power meters. The idea is to use the batteries on new electric vehicles as a form of energy storage, energy powered by the sun. The smart meters connect allow power to run from homeowners back to the grid.

What’s likely to turn some of these demonstration projects into a reliable power source is interest from venture capitalists So far, the modest $185 million in federal stimulus money has been matched by another $700 million in private money. That may make the difference, experts say.

PERSONAL DNA-BASED MEDICINE

Companies like 23andMe or Pathway Genomics have been selling “spit-kits” that allow you to send in a DNA sample and get a report on how you rank on 178 different genetically related disease and conditions, as well as where your ancestors once lived. 

These tests are coming down in price (one firm offering $99 Christmas specials) and as a result, Misha Angrist of Duke University Institute for Genome Sciences and Policy sees 2011 as the year of pharmacogenomics. That’s a fancy word for figuring out how individual patients respond to certain drugs. For example, Warfarin, a widely prescribed blood-thinning agent, requires different doses for people with different genetic markers. For some, too much Warfarin can kill, and too little won’t stop a heart attack. Angrist said the new test will help reduce adverse reactions to Warfarin that occur each year in hospitals -- reactions that affect up to 40 percent of the people taking it.

There are similar genetic-based reactions to anti-seizure and breast cancer medication and patients are going to want to know ahead of time what they should be taking.  

“We will start to see people bringing that info to their doctors,” said Angrist, author of the new book “Here is a Human Being: At the Dawn of Personal Genomics,” in which he had his entire genome sequenced, not just a few hundred markers that commercial firms now promise. 

Firms like 23andMe only sequence a tiny portion of the entire human genome. Others, like Complete Genomics – are pursuing another strategy, sequencing the patient’s entire genome, yet not releasing information to individuals until researchers know more about how it works. Right now, the firm is collaborating with scientists who want to compare genomes from cancer patients, for example, to figure out the disease’s genetic roots. 

D-I-Y 3-D

Hollywood doesn’t have a monopoly on 3D technology anymore - you don’t need to pay a fortune at the ticket booth and get stuck with paper glasses to get three-dimensional images. New 3D television sets went on sale in 2010, right before World Cup soccer, while Panasonic started selling the first full 3D hi-def digital camcorder. Even the British newspaper The Sun came with 3D glasses last summer. What’s next? Oakley is now selling wrap-around 3D sunglasses for watching that new TV set or latest blockbuster for $120 per pair. Just don’t wear them outside, warns the frame-maker. Look for other 3D tech uses in gaming and point-and-shoot cameras -- as well as medical imaging.

via : discovery